Market Intelligence
NeutralMarket is quiet and efficiently priced
- Lowest margin: 1xBet at 2.57%; highest: SportyBet at 4.47%.
- No opening price on record, so movement cannot be assessed.
🏒 NHL, ⏰ Wed 14 Oct 05:15(in 35h 56m)
New York Rangers vs Boston Bruins
📊 Why this pick
C Over 5.5 goals
1.86 at 1xBet 1.85 fair +0.49% edge
Stake
₦50
₦50
Over 5.5 goals lands 54% of the time by our numbers. At 1.86 it only needs 54% to pay off.
- Model rates it 2.1 pts higher than the market.
- Expected 3.0–3.0 goals; 0.5 over the 5.5 line.
Thin value, stake ₦50 (0.14%) Confidence
Building the score surface…
Rows: New York Rangers goals. Columns: Boston Bruins goals.
🎯 Most likely regulation scores
- 3–2 5.1%
- 2–2 5.0%
- 3–3 5.0%
- 2–3 4.9%
- 4–2 3.9%
- 4–3 3.8%
- Expected goals
- 3.05 – 2.95
- Total vs line
- 6.0 5.5
- Tied after 60 min
- 17%
- Rangers −1.5
- 28%
51% New York Rangers49% Boston Bruins
Team strength from season scoring rates.
🎯 Markets
Every market we price for this match. Model is our blended estimate (60% model, rest market), fair is the price it implies, and the amber price is the best across SportyBet, 1xBet, 22Bet.
Moneyline
Who wins, overtime or a shootout included.
New York Rangers ML
Model 51%, fair 1.94
1.93
1xBet
−0.6%
Boston Bruins ML
Model 49%, fair 2.06
1.98
22Bet
−4.0%
Regulation result
60 minutes only; a tie is a draw.
New York Rangers in regulation
Model 43%, fair 2.34, derived
2.30
1xBet
−1.6%
Draw after 60 min
Model 17%, fair 5.96, derived
5.67
1xBet
−4.8%
Boston Bruins in regulation
Model 40%, fair 2.47, derived
2.34
1xBet
−5.4%
Puck line
A goal and a half head start or deficit.
🤏 C New York Rangers -1.5
Model 27%, fair 3.66, derived
3.71
1xBet
+1.3%
Boston Bruins +1.5
Model 73%, fair 1.38, derived
1.32
1xBet
−4.0%
New York Rangers +1.5
Model 74%, fair 1.34
1.30
SportyBet
−3.3%
Boston Bruins -1.5
Model 26%, fair 3.91
3.40
SportyBet
−13.0%
Total goals
Goals by both teams, overtime or a shootout included.
Over 4.5 goals
Model 76%, fair 1.32, derived
1.30
1xBet
−1.8%
Under 4.5 goals
Model 24%, fair 4.08, derived
3.69
1xBet
−9.6%
🤏 C Over 5.5 goals
Model 54%, fair 1.85
1.86
1xBet
+0.5%
Under 5.5 goals
Model 46%, fair 2.18
2.00
1xBet
−8.1%
Over 6.5 goals
Model 43%, fair 2.32
2.25
22Bet
−2.9%
Under 6.5 goals
Model 57%, fair 1.76
1.62
22Bet
−7.9%
⚡ A Over 7.5 goals
Model 24%, fair 4.08, derived
4.25
1xBet
+4.1%
Under 7.5 goals
Model 76%, fair 1.32, derived
1.25
1xBet
−5.6%
Team goals
One team only.
🤏 C New York Rangers over 2.5
Model 60%, fair 1.66, derived
1.66
1xBet
+0.0%
Boston Bruins over 2.5
Model 58%, fair 1.71, derived
1.67
1xBet
−2.5%
👍 B New York Rangers over 3.5
Model 38%, fair 2.65, derived
2.70
1xBet
+2.0%
Boston Bruins over 3.5
Model 36%, fair 2.78, derived
2.75
1xBet
−1.2%
🧠 Reasoning
Four checks run over the numbers above. Each sentence is generated from computed values.
Squad & Context
NeutralFull-strength lineups
- Team strength from season scoring rates.
Quantitative Model
Supports a betModel sees a mispricing
- Expected goals: 3.05 – 2.95; most likely regulation score 3–2.
- Model moneyline 51.9% / 48.1% vs market 50.8% / 49.2%.
- Over 5.5: model 55.4% vs market 51.9%.
Risk Manager
NeutralStake 0.14% of bankroll (¼ Kelly, capped 3.5%)
- Break-even probability at 1.86 is 53.8%; blended estimate is 54.0%.
- Quarter-Kelly keeps drawdowns survivable if the model is overconfident.
✅ Verdict
Over 5.5 goals at 1.86
1xBet, grade C, stake 0.14% (₦50)
Blending the model (60%) with the de-vigged market puts Over 5.5 goals at 54.0% against a market consensus of 51.9%. 1xBet's 1.86 beats the fair price of 1.85, an expected edge of +0.49%.
Live AI explanation
Subscriber access. Uses the backend fixture feed; AI may make mistakes. Up to 10 requests daily.