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PuntersEdge
Ice hockey

🏒 NHL, ⏰ Tomorrow 07:15(in 13h 56m)

Edmonton Oilers vs Calgary Flames

📊 Why this pick

PASS Edmonton Oilers ML
1.64 at 1xBet 1.65 fair −0.77% edge
✋ No bet

No bet here. The best price, Edmonton Oilers ML at 1.64, needs 61%; our number is 61%.

Needs 61%Model 61%
Model Market 59% Break-even
  • Model rates it 1.0 pts higher than the market.
  • Expected 3.5–2.8 goals; 0.3 under the 6.5 line.
No value at this price Confidence

🎯 Most likely regulation scores

  1. 3–2 5.3%
  2. 3–3 4.8%
  3. 2–2 4.6%
  4. 4–2 4.5%
  5. 2–3 4.2%
  6. 4–3 4.2%
Expected goals
3.45 – 2.75
Total vs line
6.2 6.5
Tied after 60 min
16%
Oilers −1.5
37%
61% Edmonton Oilers39% Calgary Flames

Team strength from season scoring rates.

🎯 Markets

Every market we price for this match. Model is our blended estimate (60% model, rest market), fair is the price it implies, and the amber price is the best across SportyBet, 1xBet, 22Bet.

Moneyline

Who wins, overtime or a shootout included.

  • Edmonton Oilers ML

    Model 61%, fair 1.65

    1.64

    1xBet

    −0.8%

  • Calgary Flames ML

    Model 39%, fair 2.53

    2.36

    1xBet

    −6.8%

Regulation result

60 minutes only; a tie is a draw.

  • Edmonton Oilers in regulation

    Model 52%, fair 1.91, derived

    1.87

    1xBet

    −2.3%

  • Draw after 60 min

    Model 16%, fair 6.31, derived

    5.99

    1xBet

    −5.2%

  • Calgary Flames in regulation

    Model 32%, fair 3.13, derived

    2.87

    SportyBet

    −8.4%

Puck line

A goal and a half head start or deficit.

  • Edmonton Oilers -1.5

    Model 37%, fair 2.69

    2.50

    1xBet

    −7.2%

  • Calgary Flames +1.5

    Model 63%, fair 1.59

    1.55

    1xBet

    −2.5%

  • Edmonton Oilers +1.5

    Model 81%, fair 1.23, derived

    1.21

    1xBet

    −1.8%

  • Calgary Flames -1.5

    Model 19%, fair 5.30, derived

    4.94

    SportyBet

    −6.8%

Total goals

Goals by both teams, overtime or a shootout included.

  • Over 4.5 goals

    Model 79%, fair 1.27, derived

    1.21

    1xBet

    −4.5%

  • Under 4.5 goals

    Model 21%, fair 4.74, derived

    4.64

    1xBet

    −2.1%

  • Over 5.5 goals

    Model 59%, fair 1.70, derived

    1.61

    1xBet

    −5.1%

  • Under 5.5 goals

    Model 41%, fair 2.44, derived

    2.37

    1xBet

    −2.7%

  • Over 6.5 goals

    Model 48%, fair 2.09

    1.98

    1xBet

    −5.5%

  • Under 6.5 goals

    Model 52%, fair 1.91

    1.86

    1xBet

    −2.8%

  • Over 7.5 goals

    Model 29%, fair 3.48, derived

    3.28

    1xBet

    −5.8%

  • Under 7.5 goals

    Model 71%, fair 1.40, derived

    1.36

    1xBet

    −3.0%

Team goals

One team only.

  • Edmonton Oilers over 2.5

    Model 69%, fair 1.45, derived

    1.40

    1xBet

    −3.2%

  • Calgary Flames over 2.5

    Model 55%, fair 1.82, derived

    1.71

    1xBet

    −6.3%

  • Edmonton Oilers over 3.5

    Model 48%, fair 2.10, derived

    2.04

    1xBet

    −3.0%

  • Calgary Flames over 3.5

    Model 33%, fair 3.05, derived

    2.82

    SportyBet

    −7.6%

🧠 Reasoning

Four checks run over the numbers above. Each sentence is generated from computed values.

Market Intelligence

Neutral

Market is quiet and efficiently priced

  • Lowest margin: 1xBet at 3.35%; highest: SportyBet at 5.05%.
  • No opening price on record, so movement cannot be assessed.

Squad & Context

Neutral

Full-strength lineups

  • Team strength from season scoring rates.

Quantitative Model

Neutral

Model agrees with the market

  • Expected goals: 3.45 – 2.75; most likely regulation score 3–2.
  • Model moneyline 61.2% / 38.8% vs market 59.5% / 40.5%.
  • Over 6.5: model 47.4% vs market 48.3%.

Risk Manager

Argues caution

No stake — no positive expectation

  • Every available price is at or below fair value after removing margin.

✋ Verdict

Pass

No selection clears fair value at the best available price. Passing is a position: the margin is the bookmaker’s edge, not yours.

Live AI explanation

Subscriber access. Uses the backend fixture feed; AI may make mistakes. Up to 10 requests daily.