Market Intelligence
NeutralMarket is quiet and efficiently priced
- Lowest margin: 1xBet at 2.63%; highest: SportyBet at 4.56%.
- No opening price on record, so movement cannot be assessed.
⚾ MLB, ⏰ Wed 14 Oct 04:15(in 34h 56m)
New York Yankees vs Houston Astros
📊 Why this pick
C Over 8.5 runs
2.20 at 22Bet 2.19 fair +0.65% edge
Stake
₦50
₦50
Over 8.5 runs lands 46% of the time by our numbers. At 2.20 it only needs 45% to pay off.
- Model rates it 2.8 pts higher than the market.
- Expected 4.3–4.3 runs; 1.1 over the 7.5 line.
Thin value, stake ₦50 (0.14%) Confidence
Building the score surface…
Rows: New York Yankees goals. Columns: Houston Astros goals.
🎯 Most likely regulation scores
- 3–3 2.2%
- 3–2 2.2%
- 2–3 2.1%
- 2–2 2.1%
- 4–3 2.0%
- 3–4 2.0%
- Expected runs
- 4.35 – 4.25
- Total vs line
- 8.6 7.5
- Yankees −1.5
- 36%
51% New York Yankees49% Houston Astros
Team strength from season scoring rates.
🎯 Markets
Every market we price for this match. Model is our blended estimate (60% model, rest market), fair is the price it implies, and the amber price is the best across SportyBet, 1xBet, 22Bet.
Moneyline
Who wins, extra innings included.
New York Yankees ML
Model 51%, fair 1.95
1.90
1xBet
−2.6%
Houston Astros ML
Model 49%, fair 2.05
2.00
1xBet
−2.5%
Run line
A run and a half head start or deficit.
New York Yankees -1.5
Model 35%, fair 2.82, derived
2.77
22Bet
−1.7%
Houston Astros +1.5
Model 65%, fair 1.55, derived
1.51
1xBet
−2.6%
New York Yankees +1.5
Model 67%, fair 1.50
1.42
SportyBet
−5.2%
Houston Astros -1.5
Model 33%, fair 3.01
2.85
SportyBet
−5.2%
Total runs
Runs by both teams, extra innings included.
Over 6.5 runs
Model 66%, fair 1.51, derived
1.50
22Bet
−0.5%
Under 6.5 runs
Model 34%, fair 2.97, derived
2.74
1xBet
−7.7%
Over 7.5 runs
Model 54%, fair 1.84
1.84
1xBet
−0.1%
Under 7.5 runs
Model 46%, fair 2.19
2.02
1xBet
−7.7%
🤏 C Over 8.5 runs
Model 46%, fair 2.19
2.20
22Bet
+0.7%
Under 8.5 runs
Model 54%, fair 1.84
1.68
22Bet
−8.9%
⚡ A Over 9.5 runs
Model 36%, fair 2.81, derived
2.93
22Bet
+4.4%
Under 9.5 runs
Model 64%, fair 1.55, derived
1.46
1xBet
−6.0%
⚡ A Over 10.5 runs
Model 29%, fair 3.43, derived
3.63
22Bet
+5.9%
Under 10.5 runs
Model 71%, fair 1.41, derived
1.33
1xBet
−5.8%
Team runs
One team only.
New York Yankees over 3.5
Model 55%, fair 1.83, derived
1.82
22Bet
−0.7%
Houston Astros over 3.5
Model 53%, fair 1.88, derived
1.87
22Bet
−0.8%
🤏 C New York Yankees over 4.5
Model 41%, fair 2.44, derived
2.47
22Bet
+1.1%
🤏 C Houston Astros over 4.5
Model 39%, fair 2.54, derived
2.56
22Bet
+0.8%
🧠 Reasoning
Four checks run over the numbers above. Each sentence is generated from computed values.
Squad & Context
NeutralFull-strength lineups
- Team strength from season scoring rates.
Quantitative Model
Supports a betModel sees a mispricing
- Expected runs: 4.35 – 4.25; most likely regulation score 3–3.
- Model moneyline 51.1% / 48.9% vs market 51.4% / 48.6%.
- Over 7.5: model 55.4% vs market 52.6%.
Risk Manager
NeutralStake 0.14% of bankroll (¼ Kelly, capped 3.5%)
- Break-even probability at 2.20 is 45.5%; blended estimate is 45.8%.
- Quarter-Kelly keeps drawdowns survivable if the model is overconfident.
✅ Verdict
Over 8.5 runs at 2.20
22Bet, grade C, stake 0.14% (₦50)
Blending the model (60%) with the de-vigged market puts Over 8.5 runs at 45.8% against a market consensus of 43.0%. 22Bet's 2.20 beats the fair price of 2.19, an expected edge of +0.65%.
Live AI explanation
Subscriber access. Uses the backend fixture feed; AI may make mistakes. Up to 10 requests daily.