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PuntersEdge
Football

โšฝ Serie A, โฐ Thu 15 Oct 19:15(in 3d)

Inter vs Napoli

๐Ÿ“Š Why this pick

B Napoli Win
3.95 at 1xBet 3.85 fair +2.52% edge
Stake
โ‚ฆ100

Napoli Win lands 26% of the time by our numbers. At 3.95 it only needs 25% to pay off.

Needs 25%Model 26%
Model Market 24% Break-even
  • Model rates it 1.6 pts higher than the market.
  • Expected goals 1.38 vs 1.04; likeliest score 1โ€“1.
  • 1 out (L. Martรญnez), priced in.
  • Home price drifted 7.1% since open, a sharp-money sign.
Some value, stake โ‚ฆ100 (0.21%) Confidence

๐ŸŽฏ Most likely scores

  1. 1โ€“1 14.2%
  2. 1โ€“0 10.8%
  3. 0โ€“0 10.3%
  4. 2โ€“1 8.8%
  5. 2โ€“0 8.4%
  6. 0โ€“1 7.9%
Expected goals
1.38 โ€“ 1.04
Before absences
1.46 โ€“ 1.02
Clean sheet
35% / 25%
Low-score ฯ
-0.11
44% Inter30% Draw26% Napoli

Out: L. Martรญnez (FWD). Modelled impact: Inter attack -5.6%, defence weakened 2.4%.

๐ŸŽฏ Markets

Every market we price for this match. Model is our blended estimate (60% model, rest market), fair is the price it implies, and the amber price is the best across SportyBet, 1xBet, 22Bet.

Match result

Who wins after 90 minutes.

  • Inter Win

    Model 44%, fair 2.25

    2.12

    1xBet

    โˆ’5.9%

  • Draw

    Model 30%, fair 3.37

    3.30

    1xBet

    โˆ’2.2%

  • ๐Ÿ‘ B Napoli Win

    Model 26%, fair 3.85

    3.95

    1xBet

    +2.5%

Double chance

Covers two of the three results. Safer, shorter prices.

  • Inter or Draw (1X)

    Model 74%, fair 1.35, derived

    1.29

    1xBet

    โˆ’4.5%

  • Inter or Napoli (12)

    Model 70%, fair 1.42, derived

    1.38

    1xBet

    โˆ’2.9%

  • ๐Ÿค C Draw or Napoli (X2)

    Model 56%, fair 1.80, derived

    1.81

    1xBet

    +0.6%

Draw no bet

Stake returned if itโ€™s a draw.

  • Inter (DNB)

    Model 63%, fair 1.58, refund 30%, derived

    1.49

    1xBet

    โˆ’4.2%

  • ๐Ÿ‘ B Napoli (DNB)

    Model 37%, fair 2.71, refund 30%, derived

    2.81

    1xBet

    +2.6%

Asian handicap

A goal head start or deficit. Whole lines refund on a tie.

  • Inter -1.5

    Model 22%, fair 4.53, derived

    4.13

    1xBet

    โˆ’8.8%

  • Napoli +1.5

    Model 78%, fair 1.28, derived

    1.26

    1xBet

    โˆ’1.8%

  • Inter -1

    Model 28%, fair 3.52, refund 22%, derived

    3.19

    1xBet

    โˆ’7.3%

  • Napoli +1

    Model 72%, fair 1.40, refund 22%, derived

    1.39

    22Bet

    โˆ’0.4%

  • Inter -0.5

    Model 44%, fair 2.25, derived

    2.09

    1xBet

    โˆ’7.2%

  • ๐Ÿค C Napoli +0.5

    Model 56%, fair 1.80, derived

    1.80

    22Bet

    +0.1%

  • Inter +0.5

    Model 74%, fair 1.35, derived

    1.28

    1xBet

    โˆ’5.2%

  • ๐Ÿ‘ B Napoli -0.5

    Model 26%, fair 3.85, derived

    3.95

    1xBet

    +2.5%

  • Inter +1

    Model 88%, fair 1.14, refund 16%, derived

    1.08

    1xBet

    โˆ’4.2%

  • โšก A Napoli -1

    Model 12%, fair 8.32, refund 16%, derived

    8.84

    1xBet

    +5.3%

  • Inter +1.5

    Model 90%, fair 1.11, derived

    1.06

    1xBet

    โˆ’4.7%

  • โšก A Napoli -1.5

    Model 10%, fair 9.89, derived

    10.43

    1xBet

    +5.5%

Total goals

Goals by both teams combined.

  • Over 1.5 goals

    Model 71%, fair 1.41, derived

    1.36

    1xBet

    โˆ’3.4%

  • Under 1.5 goals

    Model 29%, fair 3.46, derived

    3.37

    22Bet

    โˆ’2.5%

  • Over 2.5 goals

    Model 44%, fair 2.29

    2.20

    1xBet

    โˆ’4.0%

  • Under 2.5 goals

    Model 56%, fair 1.77

    1.73

    22Bet

    โˆ’2.5%

  • Over 3.5 goals

    Model 23%, fair 4.42, derived

    4.27

    1xBet

    โˆ’3.4%

  • Under 3.5 goals

    Model 77%, fair 1.29, derived

    1.25

    1xBet

    โˆ’3.3%

Both teams to score

Does each side find the net?

  • BTTS Yes

    Model 49%, fair 2.06

    2.05

    1xBet

    โˆ’0.5%

  • BTTS No

    Model 51%, fair 1.94

    1.80

    1xBet

    โˆ’7.4%

Team goals

One teamโ€™s goals only.

  • Inter over 0.5

    Model 75%, fair 1.33, derived

    1.27

    1xBet

    โˆ’4.2%

  • Inter over 1.5

    Model 41%, fair 2.44, derived

    2.29

    1xBet

    โˆ’6.2%

  • Napoli over 0.5

    Model 64%, fair 1.56, derived

    1.54

    1xBet

    โˆ’1.6%

  • ๐Ÿค C Napoli over 1.5

    Model 27%, fair 3.68, derived

    3.73

    1xBet

    +1.2%

Clean sheet

Keeps the opponent to zero.

  • Inter clean sheet

    Model 36%, fair 2.77, derived

    2.59

    22Bet

    โˆ’6.5%

  • ๐Ÿค C Napoli clean sheet

    Model 25%, fair 4.07, derived

    4.11

    22Bet

    +1.0%

โž• More fair prices

Double chance

12
70% 1.42
1X
74% 1.35
X2
56% 1.80

Asian handicap (Inter)

-1.5
21% 4.74
-1
21%, push 22% 3.70
-0.5
43% 2.32
0
43%, push 30% 1.63
+0.5
73% 1.37
+1
73%, push 16% 1.15

Total goals

Over 0.5
90% 1.11
Over 1.5
71% 1.41
Over 2.5
44% 2.29
Over 3.5
23% 4.43
Over 4.5
10% 10.14

๐Ÿง  Reasoning

Four checks run over the numbers above. Each sentence is generated from computed values.

Market Intelligence

Supports a bet

Informed money is moving this market

  • Lowest margin: 1xBet at 2.79%; highest: SportyBet at 6.00%.
  • Price drifted 7.1% despite 68% of tickets โ€” books are happy to hold public liability here.

Squad & Context

Argues caution

1 absence priced into the model

  • Out: L. Martรญnez (FWD). Modelled impact: Inter attack -5.6%, defence weakened 2.4%.

Quantitative Model

Neutral

Model agrees with the market

  • Expected goals 1.38 โ€“ 1.04 (ฯ -0.11).
  • Model 1X2 43.1% / 29.8% / 27.0% vs market 46.3% / 29.3% / 24.3%.
  • Most likely score 1โ€“1 (14.2%).

Risk Manager

Neutral

Stake 0.21% of bankroll (ยผ Kelly, capped 3.5%)

  • Break-even probability at 3.95 is 25.3%; blended estimate is 26.0%.
  • Quarter-Kelly keeps drawdowns survivable if the model is overconfident.

โœ… Verdict

Napoli Win at 3.95

1xBet, grade B, stake 0.21% (โ‚ฆ100)

Blending the model (60%) with the de-vigged market puts Napoli Win at 26.0% against a market consensus of 24.3%. 1xBet's 3.95 beats the fair price of 3.85, an expected edge of +2.52%.

Live AI explanation

Subscriber access. Uses the backend fixture feed; AI may make mistakes. Up to 10 requests daily.