Market Intelligence
NeutralMarket is quiet and efficiently priced
- Lowest margin: 1xBet at 3.50%; highest: SportyBet at 4.79%.
- Normal fluctuation (+2.0% from open).
โฝ Bundesliga, โฐ Wed 14 Oct 19:15(in 2d)
Bayern Munich vs Borussia Dortmund
๐ Why this pick
B BTTS Yes
1.70 at 1xBet 1.64 fair +3.46% edge
Stake
โฆ600
โฆ600
BTTS Yes lands 61% of the time by our numbers. At 1.70 it only needs 59% to pay off.
- Model rates it 4.2 pts higher than the market.
- Expected goals 2.54 vs 1.16; likeliest score 2โ1.
- 3 out (J. Musiala, N. Schlotterbeckโฆ), priced in.
- Home price drifted 2.0% since open.
Some value, stake โฆ600 (1.24%) Confidence
Building the score surfaceโฆ
Rows: Bayern Munich goals. Columns: Borussia Dortmund goals.
๐ฏ Most likely scores
- 2โ1 9.2%
- 2โ0 8.0%
- 3โ1 7.8%
- 1โ1 7.6%
- 3โ0 6.7%
- 1โ0 5.9%
- Expected goals
- 2.54 โ 1.16
- Before absences
- 2.38 โ 1.12
- Clean sheet
- 31% / 8%
- Low-score ฯ
- -0.05
66% Bayern Munich19% Draw15% Borussia Dortmund
Out: J. Musiala (MID), N. Schlotterbeck (DEF), G. Kobel (GK). Modelled impact: Bayern Munich attack -4.5%, defence weakened 4.5%; Borussia Dortmund attack -0.7%, defence weakened 11.9%.
๐ฏ Markets
Every market we price for this match. Model is our blended estimate (60% model, rest market), fair is the price it implies, and the amber price is the best across SportyBet, 1xBet, 22Bet.
Match result
Who wins after 90 minutes.
๐ B Bayern Munich Win
Model 66%, fair 1.52
1.55
1xBet
+1.9%
Draw
Model 19%, fair 5.30
4.80
SportyBet
โ9.4%
Borussia Dortmund Win
Model 15%, fair 6.51
6.10
SportyBet
โ6.3%
Double chance
Covers two of the three results. Safer, shorter prices.
Bayern Munich or Draw (1X)
Model 85%, fair 1.18, derived
1.15
1xBet
โ2.7%
Bayern Munich or Borussia Dortmund (12)
Model 81%, fair 1.23, derived
1.22
1xBet
โ1.0%
Draw or Borussia Dortmund (X2)
Model 34%, fair 2.92, derived
2.77
SportyBet
โ5.2%
Draw no bet
Stake returned if itโs a draw.
Bayern Munich (DNB)
Model 81%, fair 1.23, refund 18%, derived
1.21
1xBet
โ1.6%
Borussia Dortmund (DNB)
Model 19%, fair 5.28, refund 18%, derived
5.12
SportyBet
โ2.5%
Asian handicap
A goal head start or deficit. Whole lines refund on a tie.
๐ B Bayern Munich -1.5
Model 45%, fair 2.24, derived
2.29
1xBet
+2.3%
Borussia Dortmund +1.5
Model 55%, fair 1.81, derived
1.70
SportyBet
โ5.9%
๐ค C Bayern Munich -1
Model 57%, fair 1.76, refund 21%, derived
1.79
1xBet
+1.2%
Borussia Dortmund +1
Model 43%, fair 2.31, refund 21%, derived
2.17
SportyBet
โ4.8%
Bayern Munich -0.5
Model 66%, fair 1.52, derived
1.51
1xBet
โ0.4%
Borussia Dortmund +0.5
Model 34%, fair 2.94, derived
2.77
SportyBet
โ5.7%
Bayern Munich +0.5
Model 84%, fair 1.18, derived
1.15
1xBet
โ2.9%
Borussia Dortmund -0.5
Model 16%, fair 6.42, derived
6.14
SportyBet
โ4.4%
Bayern Munich +1
Model 93%, fair 1.07, refund 9%, derived
1.03
1xBet
โ3.4%
Borussia Dortmund -1
Model 7%, fair 15.35, refund 9%, derived
14.97
SportyBet
โ2.2%
Bayern Munich +1.5
Model 94%, fair 1.06, derived
1.02
1xBet
โ4.0%
Borussia Dortmund -1.5
Model 6%, fair 17.00, derived
16.57
SportyBet
โ2.5%
Total goals
Goals by both teams combined.
Over 1.5 goals
Model 88%, fair 1.14, derived
1.11
1xBet
โ2.4%
Under 1.5 goals
Model 12%, fair 8.30, derived
7.33
SportyBet
โ11.7%
๐ค C Over 2.5 goals
Model 70%, fair 1.43
1.44
1xBet
+0.8%
Under 2.5 goals
Model 30%, fair 3.34
2.90
SportyBet
โ13.1%
๐ B Over 3.5 goals
Model 49%, fair 2.05, derived
2.10
1xBet
+2.6%
Under 3.5 goals
Model 51%, fair 1.96, derived
1.78
SportyBet
โ9.0%
Both teams to score
Does each side find the net?
๐ B BTTS Yes
Model 61%, fair 1.64
1.70
1xBet
+3.5%
BTTS No
Model 39%, fair 2.55
2.18
1xBet
โ14.7%
Team goals
One teamโs goals only.
Bayern Munich over 0.5
Model 92%, fair 1.09, derived
1.06
1xBet
โ3.0%
๐ค C Bayern Munich over 1.5
Model 71%, fair 1.42, derived
1.42
1xBet
+0.3%
Borussia Dortmund over 0.5
Model 68%, fair 1.47, derived
1.41
SportyBet
โ3.8%
Borussia Dortmund over 1.5
Model 32%, fair 3.14, derived
3.10
SportyBet
โ1.4%
Clean sheet
Keeps the opponent to zero.
Bayern Munich clean sheet
Model 32%, fair 3.15, derived
2.97
1xBet
โ5.7%
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
Model 8%, fair 11.79, derived
10.63
SportyBet
โ9.9%
โ More fair prices
Double chance
- 12
- 81% 1.23
- 1X
- 85% 1.18
- X2
- 34% 2.92
Asian handicap (Bayern Munich)
- -1.5
- 46% 2.18
- -1
- 46%, push 21% 1.72
- -0.5
- 67% 1.49
- 0
- 67%, push 18% 1.23
- +0.5
- 85% 1.18
- +1
- 85%, push 9% 1.07
Total goals
- Over 0.5
- 97% 1.03
- Over 1.5
- 89% 1.13
- Over 2.5
- 72% 1.40
- Over 3.5
- 51% 1.97
- Over 4.5
- 31% 3.19
๐ง Reasoning
Four checks run over the numbers above. Each sentence is generated from computed values.
Squad & Context
Argues caution3 absences priced into the model
- Out: J. Musiala (MID), N. Schlotterbeck (DEF), G. Kobel (GK). Modelled impact: Bayern Munich attack -4.5%, defence weakened 4.5%; Borussia Dortmund attack -0.7%, defence weakened 11.9%.
Quantitative Model
Supports a betModel sees a mispricing
- Expected goals 2.54 โ 1.16 (ฯ -0.05).
- Model 1X2 66.9% / 18.0% / 15.1% vs market 64.0% / 20.2% / 15.7%.
- Most likely score 2โ1 (9.2%).
Risk Manager
NeutralStake 1.24% of bankroll (ยผ Kelly, capped 3.5%)
- Break-even probability at 1.70 is 58.8%; blended estimate is 60.9%.
- Quarter-Kelly keeps drawdowns survivable if the model is overconfident.
โ Verdict
BTTS Yes at 1.70
1xBet, grade B, stake 1.24% (โฆ600)
Blending the model (60%) with the de-vigged market puts BTTS Yes at 60.9% against a market consensus of 56.6%. 1xBet's 1.70 beats the fair price of 1.64, an expected edge of +3.46%.
Live AI explanation
Subscriber access. Uses the backend fixture feed; AI may make mistakes. Up to 10 requests daily.