Market Intelligence
Supports a betInformed money is moving this market
- Lowest margin: 1xBet at 3.16%; highest: SportyBet at 4.32%.
- Price shortened 6.4% while only 41% of tickets backed it โ money, not tickets, moved this line.
โฝ Premier League, โฐ Today 22:15(in 4h 56m)
Arsenal vs Chelsea
๐ Why this pick
A+ Arsenal Win
2.04 at 1xBet 1.85 fair +10.10% edge
Stake
โฆ1,200
โฆ1,200
Arsenal Win lands 54% of the time by our numbers. At 2.04 it only needs 49% to pay off.
- Model rates it 5.3 pts higher than the market.
- Expected goals 1.92 vs 1.02; likeliest score 1โ1.
- 1 out (C. Palmer), priced in.
- Home price shortened 6.4% since open, a sharp-money sign.
Strong value, stake โฆ1,200 (2.43%) Confidence
Building the score surfaceโฆ
Rows: Arsenal goals. Columns: Chelsea goals.
๐ฏ Most likely scores
- 1โ1 11.2%
- 2โ1 9.9%
- 2โ0 9.7%
- 1โ0 9.3%
- 3โ1 6.4%
- 3โ0 6.2%
- Expected goals
- 1.92 โ 1.02
- Before absences
- 1.82 โ 1.08
- Clean sheet
- 36% / 15%
- Low-score ฯ
- -0.08
54% Arsenal25% Draw21% Chelsea
Out: C. Palmer (MID). Modelled impact: Chelsea attack -5.5%, defence weakened 5.5%.
๐ฏ Markets
Every market we price for this match. Model is our blended estimate (60% model, rest market), fair is the price it implies, and the amber price is the best across SportyBet, 1xBet, 22Bet.
Match result
Who wins after 90 minutes.
๐ฅ A+ Arsenal Win
Model 54%, fair 1.85
2.04
1xBet
+10.1%
Draw
Model 25%, fair 4.02
3.65
SportyBet
โ9.2%
Chelsea Win
Model 21%, fair 4.73
3.90
SportyBet
โ17.5%
Double chance
Covers two of the three results. Safer, shorter prices.
๐ B Arsenal or Draw (1X)
Model 79%, fair 1.27, derived
1.29
1xBet
+1.7%
Arsenal or Chelsea (12)
Model 75%, fair 1.33, derived
1.33
1xBet
โ0.1%
Draw or Chelsea (X2)
Model 46%, fair 2.17, derived
1.90
SportyBet
โ12.5%
Draw no bet
Stake returned if itโs a draw.
โก A Arsenal (DNB)
Model 72%, fair 1.39, refund 24%, derived
1.48
1xBet
+4.7%
Chelsea (DNB)
Model 28%, fair 3.54, refund 24%, derived
2.92
SportyBet
โ13.4%
Asian handicap
A goal head start or deficit. Whole lines refund on a tie.
๐ฅ A+ Arsenal -1.5
Model 31%, fair 3.19, derived
3.66
1xBet
+14.8%
Chelsea +1.5
Model 69%, fair 1.46, derived
1.32
22Bet
โ9.4%
๐ฅ A+ Arsenal -1
Model 41%, fair 2.46, refund 23%, derived
2.84
1xBet
+11.9%
Chelsea +1
Model 59%, fair 1.68, refund 23%, derived
1.48
SportyBet
โ9.3%
๐ฅ A+ Arsenal -0.5
Model 54%, fair 1.85, derived
1.97
1xBet
+6.6%
Chelsea +0.5
Model 46%, fair 2.18, derived
1.90
SportyBet
โ12.8%
๐ค C Arsenal +0.5
Model 79%, fair 1.27, derived
1.29
22Bet
+1.5%
Chelsea -0.5
Model 21%, fair 4.68, derived
3.87
SportyBet
โ17.4%
Arsenal +1
Model 90%, fair 1.11, refund 12%, derived
1.10
22Bet
โ0.5%
Chelsea -1
Model 10%, fair 10.47, refund 12%, derived
8.13
SportyBet
โ19.7%
Arsenal +1.5
Model 92%, fair 1.09, derived
1.07
22Bet
โ1.9%
Chelsea -1.5
Model 8%, fair 12.09, derived
9.51
SportyBet
โ21.3%
Total goals
Goals by both teams combined.
Over 1.5 goals
Model 79%, fair 1.26, derived
1.23
22Bet
โ2.4%
Under 1.5 goals
Model 21%, fair 4.85, derived
4.55
SportyBet
โ6.1%
Over 2.5 goals
Model 55%, fair 1.80
1.80
1xBet
โ0.3%
Under 2.5 goals
Model 45%, fair 2.24
2.10
SportyBet
โ6.3%
๐ B Over 3.5 goals
Model 33%, fair 3.03, derived
3.10
1xBet
+2.4%
Under 3.5 goals
Model 67%, fair 1.49, derived
1.41
SportyBet
โ5.5%
Both teams to score
Does each side find the net?
BTTS Yes
Model 55%, fair 1.82
1.76
1xBet
โ3.1%
BTTS No
Model 45%, fair 2.23
2.09
22Bet
โ6.1%
Team goals
One teamโs goals only.
Arsenal over 0.5
Model 84%, fair 1.19, derived
1.18
1xBet
โ1.1%
โก A Arsenal over 1.5
Model 54%, fair 1.84, derived
1.94
1xBet
+5.6%
Chelsea over 0.5
Model 66%, fair 1.52, derived
1.41
22Bet
โ7.3%
Chelsea over 1.5
Model 29%, fair 3.44, derived
3.02
22Bet
โ12.2%
Clean sheet
Keeps the opponent to zero.
โก A Arsenal clean sheet
Model 34%, fair 2.92, derived
3.05
22Bet
+4.6%
Chelsea clean sheet
Model 16%, fair 6.17, derived
5.34
SportyBet
โ13.5%
โ More fair prices
Double chance
- 12
- 75% 1.33
- 1X
- 79% 1.27
- X2
- 46% 2.17
Asian handicap (Arsenal)
- -1.5
- 34% 2.90
- -1
- 34%, push 23% 2.23
- -0.5
- 58% 1.74
- 0
- 58%, push 24% 1.33
- +0.5
- 81% 1.23
- +1
- 81%, push 12% 1.09
Total goals
- Over 0.5
- 94% 1.07
- Over 1.5
- 80% 1.25
- Over 2.5
- 56% 1.77
- Over 3.5
- 34% 2.95
- Over 4.5
- 17% 5.72
๐ง Reasoning
Four checks run over the numbers above. Each sentence is generated from computed values.
Squad & Context
Argues caution1 absence priced into the model
- Out: C. Palmer (MID). Modelled impact: Chelsea attack -5.5%, defence weakened 5.5%.
Quantitative Model
Supports a betModel sees a mispricing
- Expected goals 1.92 โ 1.02 (ฯ -0.08).
- Model 1X2 57.5% / 23.6% / 18.9% vs market 48.6% / 26.7% / 24.6%.
- Most likely score 1โ1 (11.2%).
Risk Manager
NeutralStake 2.43% of bankroll (ยผ Kelly, capped 3.5%)
- Break-even probability at 2.04 is 49.0%; blended estimate is 54.0%.
- Quarter-Kelly keeps drawdowns survivable if the model is overconfident.
โ Verdict
Arsenal Win at 2.04
1xBet, grade A+, stake 2.43% (โฆ1,200)
Blending the model (60%) with the de-vigged market puts Arsenal Win at 54.0% against a market consensus of 48.6%. 1xBet's 2.04 beats the fair price of 1.85, an expected edge of +10.10%.
Live AI explanation
Subscriber access. Uses the backend fixture feed; AI may make mistakes. Up to 10 requests daily.